The application of time series analysis to determine the pattern of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle in Paraguay

Eduardo Alvarez Peralta, Tim Carpenter, Thomas B Farver

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in cattle in Paraguay, from 1972 to 1979, was examined using time series analysis. This technique was used to remove data irregularities which may complicate data analysis. The results showed that one secondary peak and two major cycles occurred during that period. It was determined that the secondary peak was due to a sporadic outbreak of FMD caused by type C virus. The two major cycles were predominantly due to type O virus which was found to have a 3 to 4 year frequency. This temporal pattern may aid administrators by elucidating times when increased control activities should be implemented to counteract the periodic epidemics. Time series analysis may be used to evaluate the temporal pattern of other diseases in addition to FMD, and aid in their control programs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)27-36
Number of pages10
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume1
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1982

Fingerprint

Paraguay
Foot-and-Mouth Disease
foot-and-mouth disease
time series analysis
cattle
viruses
data analysis
Viruses
Administrative Personnel
Disease Outbreaks
methodology

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • veterinary(all)

Cite this

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abstract = "The temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in cattle in Paraguay, from 1972 to 1979, was examined using time series analysis. This technique was used to remove data irregularities which may complicate data analysis. The results showed that one secondary peak and two major cycles occurred during that period. It was determined that the secondary peak was due to a sporadic outbreak of FMD caused by type C virus. The two major cycles were predominantly due to type O virus which was found to have a 3 to 4 year frequency. This temporal pattern may aid administrators by elucidating times when increased control activities should be implemented to counteract the periodic epidemics. Time series analysis may be used to evaluate the temporal pattern of other diseases in addition to FMD, and aid in their control programs.",
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