Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data

Andres M. Perez, Mark Thurmond, Tim Carpenter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Scopus citations

Abstract

We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P = 0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25 km2 cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)280-289
Number of pages10
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume76
Issue number3-4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 17 2006

Keywords

  • Co-kriging
  • Foot-and-mouth disease
  • Pakistan
  • Spatial model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • veterinary(all)

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