Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data

Andres M. Perez, Mark Thurmond, Tim Carpenter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We estimated the spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Pakistan; we used a probability co-kriging model and the number of FMD outbreaks reported between 1996 and 2000 by Pakistan to the Office International des Epizooties. We used a k-Bessel model and small-ruminant and human densities as surrogate covariates for the population at risk and for livestock markets and movements, respectively. Compared to no or only one covariate, the co-kriging model with both densities provided the best fit to independently obtained data on the spatial distribution of virus isolations (P = 0.57). The estimated probability of an FMD outbreak per 25 km2 cell ranged from 0.017 to 0.812, with the maximum relative probability of 47.8 (0.812/0.017). Areas with the highest relative probability of having an FMD outbreak were located in the Punjab region; this is a major animal-production area located along a traditional international animal-trade route.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)280-289
Number of pages10
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume76
Issue number3-4
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 17 2006

Fingerprint

Foot-and-Mouth Disease
Pakistan
foot-and-mouth disease
spatial distribution
Disease Outbreaks
Spatial Analysis
kriging
Ruminants
small ruminants
Livestock
at-risk population
animal production
livestock
Viruses
markets
viruses
animals
cells

Keywords

  • Co-kriging
  • Foot-and-mouth disease
  • Pakistan
  • Spatial model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • veterinary(all)

Cite this

Spatial distribution of foot-and-mouth disease in Pakistan estimated using imperfect data. / Perez, Andres M.; Thurmond, Mark; Carpenter, Tim.

In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 76, No. 3-4, 17.10.2006, p. 280-289.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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