Simulation analysis of the effect of herd immunity and age structure on infection of a cattle herd with bluetongue viruses in Queensland, Australia

M. P. Ward, Tim Carpenter

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A state-transition model based on Leslie matrix formulation was used to investigate the effects of herd immunity and age structure on the infection of a simulated cattle herd with bluetongue viruses under Australian climatic conditions. Increasing duration of immunity decreased the prevalence of infection. A duration of immunity of 33 months was consistent with prevalence estimates made from previous serological studies of bluetongue virus. Herd prevalence displayed slowly dampening cyclical variation over time (most pronounced when a short duration of immunity was simulated). Increasing calving and mortality risk rates in the simulated herd increased prevalence, whereas increasing age at first calving decreased prevalence. Manipulation of calving rates had the greatest effect on the predicted prevalence of infection in the herd. Simulation of a number of herd-management scenarios suggested that management systems in which cattle are bred early and where high calving rates are achieved are likely to contribute to high levels of infection with bluetongue viruses. Results confirm the importance of management factors in influencing the prevalence of infectious diseases in animal populations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)299-309
Number of pages11
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume29
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1997

Fingerprint

Herd Immunity
Bluetongue virus
Queensland
age structure
herds
cattle
Infection
infection
calving rate
Immunity
immunity
duration
calving
serological surveys
herd immunity
infectious diseases
management systems
Communicable Diseases
breeds
Mortality

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Food Animals
  • Animal Science and Zoology

Cite this

@article{a42abcf7f8c9444f8e98be087c69e279,
title = "Simulation analysis of the effect of herd immunity and age structure on infection of a cattle herd with bluetongue viruses in Queensland, Australia",
abstract = "A state-transition model based on Leslie matrix formulation was used to investigate the effects of herd immunity and age structure on the infection of a simulated cattle herd with bluetongue viruses under Australian climatic conditions. Increasing duration of immunity decreased the prevalence of infection. A duration of immunity of 33 months was consistent with prevalence estimates made from previous serological studies of bluetongue virus. Herd prevalence displayed slowly dampening cyclical variation over time (most pronounced when a short duration of immunity was simulated). Increasing calving and mortality risk rates in the simulated herd increased prevalence, whereas increasing age at first calving decreased prevalence. Manipulation of calving rates had the greatest effect on the predicted prevalence of infection in the herd. Simulation of a number of herd-management scenarios suggested that management systems in which cattle are bred early and where high calving rates are achieved are likely to contribute to high levels of infection with bluetongue viruses. Results confirm the importance of management factors in influencing the prevalence of infectious diseases in animal populations.",
author = "Ward, {M. P.} and Tim Carpenter",
year = "1997",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/S0167-5877(96)01081-1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "29",
pages = "299--309",
journal = "Preventive Veterinary Medicine",
issn = "0167-5877",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Simulation analysis of the effect of herd immunity and age structure on infection of a cattle herd with bluetongue viruses in Queensland, Australia

AU - Ward, M. P.

AU - Carpenter, Tim

PY - 1997/1/1

Y1 - 1997/1/1

N2 - A state-transition model based on Leslie matrix formulation was used to investigate the effects of herd immunity and age structure on the infection of a simulated cattle herd with bluetongue viruses under Australian climatic conditions. Increasing duration of immunity decreased the prevalence of infection. A duration of immunity of 33 months was consistent with prevalence estimates made from previous serological studies of bluetongue virus. Herd prevalence displayed slowly dampening cyclical variation over time (most pronounced when a short duration of immunity was simulated). Increasing calving and mortality risk rates in the simulated herd increased prevalence, whereas increasing age at first calving decreased prevalence. Manipulation of calving rates had the greatest effect on the predicted prevalence of infection in the herd. Simulation of a number of herd-management scenarios suggested that management systems in which cattle are bred early and where high calving rates are achieved are likely to contribute to high levels of infection with bluetongue viruses. Results confirm the importance of management factors in influencing the prevalence of infectious diseases in animal populations.

AB - A state-transition model based on Leslie matrix formulation was used to investigate the effects of herd immunity and age structure on the infection of a simulated cattle herd with bluetongue viruses under Australian climatic conditions. Increasing duration of immunity decreased the prevalence of infection. A duration of immunity of 33 months was consistent with prevalence estimates made from previous serological studies of bluetongue virus. Herd prevalence displayed slowly dampening cyclical variation over time (most pronounced when a short duration of immunity was simulated). Increasing calving and mortality risk rates in the simulated herd increased prevalence, whereas increasing age at first calving decreased prevalence. Manipulation of calving rates had the greatest effect on the predicted prevalence of infection in the herd. Simulation of a number of herd-management scenarios suggested that management systems in which cattle are bred early and where high calving rates are achieved are likely to contribute to high levels of infection with bluetongue viruses. Results confirm the importance of management factors in influencing the prevalence of infectious diseases in animal populations.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0031062894&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0031062894&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/S0167-5877(96)01081-1

DO - 10.1016/S0167-5877(96)01081-1

M3 - Article

VL - 29

SP - 299

EP - 309

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

SN - 0167-5877

IS - 4

ER -