Risk analysis of quarantine station performance: A case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California

Tim Carpenter, Michael D. McBride, David W. Hird

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Scopus citations

Abstract

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)11-16
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 1998

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • veterinary(all)

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