TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk analysis of quarantine station performance
T2 - A case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California
AU - Carpenter, Tim
AU - McBride, Michael D.
AU - Hird, David W.
PY - 1998/1/1
Y1 - 1998/1/1
N2 - We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.
AB - We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.
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U2 - 10.1177/104063879801000103
DO - 10.1177/104063879801000103
M3 - Article
C2 - 9526854
AN - SCOPUS:0031606973
VL - 10
SP - 11
EP - 16
JO - Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
JF - Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
SN - 1040-6387
IS - 1
ER -