Abstract
We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 11-16 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 1 1998 |
Fingerprint
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- veterinary(all)
Cite this
Risk analysis of quarantine station performance : A case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California. / Carpenter, Tim; McBride, Michael D.; Hird, David W.
In: Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation, Vol. 10, No. 1, 01.01.1998, p. 11-16.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk analysis of quarantine station performance
T2 - A case study of the importation of equine infectious anemia virus-infected horses into California
AU - Carpenter, Tim
AU - McBride, Michael D.
AU - Hird, David W.
PY - 1998/1/1
Y1 - 1998/1/1
N2 - We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.
AB - We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0031606973&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=0031606973&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1177/104063879801000103
DO - 10.1177/104063879801000103
M3 - Article
C2 - 9526854
AN - SCOPUS:0031606973
VL - 10
SP - 11
EP - 16
JO - Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
JF - Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
SN - 1040-6387
IS - 1
ER -