Predictors of cardiovascular events and mortality in the systolic hypertension in the elderly program pilot project

Siegel, D. (Clinical Epidemiology Program, San Francisco General Hospital, San Francisco, CA 94110), L. Kuller, N. B. Lazarus, D. Black, D. Feigal, G. Hughes, J. A. Schoenberger, and S. B. Hulley. Predictors of cardiovascular events and mortality in the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program pilot project. Am J Epidemiol 1987;126:385-99.Do the established cardiovascular risk factors for younger persons remain important predictors of cardiovascular disease events and mortality in those who are older? The authors examined this question in the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program pilot project which prospectively followed 551 men and women 60 years of age and older with pretreatment systolic blood pressure ≥160 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure <90 mmHg who were enrolled between May 1981 and July 1982. Mean age was 72 years, 37% were men, 82% were white, and 24% had attended college. The vital status of all 551 participants was known at the end of follow-up, an average of 34 months after entry; there were 39 deaths from all causes, 66 first cardiovascular events, 18 strokes, and 20 episodes of myocardial infarction/sudden death. Univariate Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that age was a predictor (p < 0.05) of all-cause mortality, first cardio vascular event, and stroke. Less than college education was a predictor of all-cause mortality and first cardiovascular event, smoking was a predictor of first cardiovascular event and myocardial infarction/sudden death, cholesterol was a predictor of first cardiovascular event, and lower body mass index was a predictor of increased all-cause mortality. After adjustment for covanables, age, lower education, lower body mass index, and baseline electrocardiographic abnormal ities were significant predictors of all-cause mortality, and age, lower education, history of cardiovascular event, and smoking remained significant predictors of first cardiovascular event. Sex was not a risk factor, and the ability to examine hypertension as a risk factor was impaired by the fact that the entire cohort had systolic hypertension at baseline, and most were treated. These findings, com bined with prior evidence, suggest that smoking, low education level, and perhaps serum cholesterol are risk factors for cardiovascular disease in the elderly. Although the excess risk conveyed by these factors is large, its reversibility needs to be demonstrated by intervention studies.