Abstract
Most pandemics-eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza-originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1956-1965 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | The Lancet |
| Volume | 380 |
| Issue number | 9857 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Dec 2012 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Medicine(all)
Cite this
Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis. / Morse, Stephen S.; Mazet, Jonna A; Woolhouse, Mark; Parrish, Colin R.; Carroll, Dennis; Karesh, William B.; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Lipkin, W. Ian; Daszak, Peter.
In: The Lancet, Vol. 380, No. 9857, 12.2012, p. 1956-1965.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis
AU - Morse, Stephen S.
AU - Mazet, Jonna A
AU - Woolhouse, Mark
AU - Parrish, Colin R.
AU - Carroll, Dennis
AU - Karesh, William B.
AU - Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos
AU - Lipkin, W. Ian
AU - Daszak, Peter
PY - 2012/12
Y1 - 2012/12
N2 - Most pandemics-eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza-originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.
AB - Most pandemics-eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza-originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84870279179&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84870279179&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61684-5
DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61684-5
M3 - Article
C2 - 23200504
AN - SCOPUS:84870279179
VL - 380
SP - 1956
EP - 1965
JO - The Lancet
JF - The Lancet
SN - 0140-6736
IS - 9857
ER -