Predicting risk of dementia in older adults

The late-life dementia risk index

D. E. Barnes, K. E. Covinsky, Rachel Whitmer, L. H. Kuller, O. L. Lopez, K. Yaffe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

119 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: To develop a late-life dementia risk index that can accurately stratify older adults into those with a low, moderate, or high risk of developing dementia within 6 years. Methods: Subjects were 3,375 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study without evidence of dementia at baseline. We used logistic regression to identify those factors most predictive of developing incident dementia within 6 years and developed a point system based on the logistic regression coefficients. Results: Subjects had a mean age of 76 years at baseline; 59% were women and 15% were African American. Fourteen percent (n = 480) developed dementia within 6 years. The final latelife dementia risk index included older age (1-2 points), poor cognitive test performance (2-4 points), body mass index <18.5 (2 points), ≥1 apolipoprotein E ε4 alleles (1 point), cerebral MRI findings of white matter disease (1 point) or ventricular enlargement (1 point), internal carotid artery thickening on ultrasound (1 point), history of bypass surgery (1 point), slow physical performance (1 point), and lack of alcohol consumption (1 point) (c statistic, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.83). Four percent of subjects with low scores developed dementia over 6 years compared with 23% of subjects with moderate scores and 56% of subjects with high scores. Conclusions: The late-life dementia risk index accurately stratified older adults into those with low, moderate, and high risk of developing dementia. This tool could be used in clinical or research settings to target prevention and intervention strategies toward high-risk individuals.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)173-179
Number of pages7
JournalNeurology
Volume73
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 21 2009
Externally publishedYes

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Dementia
Logistic Models
Apolipoprotein E4
Leukoencephalopathies
Internal Carotid Artery
Alcohol Drinking
African Americans
Cognition
Body Mass Index
Alleles
Confidence Intervals
Health
Research

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Clinical Neurology

Cite this

Barnes, D. E., Covinsky, K. E., Whitmer, R., Kuller, L. H., Lopez, O. L., & Yaffe, K. (2009). Predicting risk of dementia in older adults: The late-life dementia risk index. Neurology, 73(3), 173-179. https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.0b013e3181a81636

Predicting risk of dementia in older adults : The late-life dementia risk index. / Barnes, D. E.; Covinsky, K. E.; Whitmer, Rachel; Kuller, L. H.; Lopez, O. L.; Yaffe, K.

In: Neurology, Vol. 73, No. 3, 21.07.2009, p. 173-179.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Barnes, DE, Covinsky, KE, Whitmer, R, Kuller, LH, Lopez, OL & Yaffe, K 2009, 'Predicting risk of dementia in older adults: The late-life dementia risk index', Neurology, vol. 73, no. 3, pp. 173-179. https://doi.org/10.1212/WNL.0b013e3181a81636
Barnes, D. E. ; Covinsky, K. E. ; Whitmer, Rachel ; Kuller, L. H. ; Lopez, O. L. ; Yaffe, K. / Predicting risk of dementia in older adults : The late-life dementia risk index. In: Neurology. 2009 ; Vol. 73, No. 3. pp. 173-179.
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