Outcomes of screening mammography by frequency, breast density, postmenopausal hormone therapy

Karla Kerlikowske, Weiwei Zhu, Rebecca A. Hubbard, Berta Geller, Kim Dittus, Dejana Braithwaite, Karen J. Wernli, Diana L Miglioretti, Ellen S. O'Meara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

138 Scopus citations


Importance: Controversy exists about the frequency women should undergo screening mammography and whether screening interval should vary according to risk factors beyond age. Objective: To compare the benefits and harms of screening mammography frequencies according to age, breast density, and postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) use. Design: Prospective cohort. Setting: Data collected January 1994 to December 2008 from mammography facilities in community practice that participate in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) mammography registries. Participants: Data were collected prospectively on 11 474 women with breast cancer and 922 624 without breast cancer who underwent mammography at facilities that participate in the BCSC. Main Outcomes and Measures: We used logistic regression to calculate the odds of advanced stage (IIb, III, or IV) and large tumors (>20 mm in diameter) and 10-year cumulative probability of a false-positive mammography result by screening frequency, age, breast density, and HT use. The main predictor was screening mammography interval. Results: Mammography biennially vs annually for women aged 50 to 74 years does not increase risk of tumors with advanced stage or large size regardless of women's breast density or HT use. Among women aged 40 to 49 years with extremely dense breasts, biennial mammography vs annual is associated with increased risk of advanced-stage cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.89; 95% CI, 1.06-3.39) and large tumors (OR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.37-4.18). Cumulative probability of a false-positive mammography result was high among women undergoing annual mammography with extremely dense breasts who were either aged 40 to 49 years (65.5%) or used estrogen plus progestogen (65.8%) and was lower among women aged 50 to 74 years who underwent biennial or triennial mammography with scattered fibroglandular densities (30.7% and 21.9%, respectively) or fatty breasts (17.4% and 12.1%, respectively). Conclusions and Relevance: Women aged 50 to 74 years, even those with high breast density or HT use, who undergo biennial screening mammography have similar risk of advanced-stage disease and lower cumulative risk of false-positive results than those who undergo annual mammography. When deciding whether to undergo mammography, women aged 40 to 49 years who have extremely dense breasts should be informed that annual mammography may minimize their risk of advanced-stage disease but the cumulative risk of false-positive results is high.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)807-816
Number of pages10
JournalJAMA Internal Medicine
Issue number9
StatePublished - May 13 2013

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine


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