Novel nomograms for castration-resistant prostate cancer and survival outcome in patients with de novo bone metastatic prostate cancer

Jinge Zhao, Guangxi Sun, Banghua Liao, Xingming Zhang, Cameron M. Armstrong, Xiaoxue Yin, Jiandong Liu, Junru Chen, Yaojing Yang, Peng Zhao, Qidun Tang, Zhenghao Wang, Zhibin Chen, Xiong Li, Qiang Wei, Xiang Li, Ni Chen, Allen C Gao, Pengfei Shen, Hao Zeng

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: To develop nomograms predicting the incidence of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and overall survival (OS) for de novo metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: Data from 449 patients with de novo metastatic PCa were retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 314, 70%) and a validation cohort (n = 135, 30%). Predictive factors were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model and were further used for building predictive models. The outcomes were incidence of CRPC and OS. Results: Predictive factors included: Gleason score (GS), intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, and alkaline phosphatase, haemoglobin and prostate-specific antigen levels. IDC-P and GS were the strongest prognosticators for both the incidence of CRPC and OS. Nomograms for predicting CRPC and OS had an internal validated concordance index of 0.762 and 0.723, respectively. Based on the β coefficients of the final model, risk classification systems were constructed. For those with favourable, intermediate and poor prognosis, the median time to CRPC was 62.6, 28.0 and 13.0 months (P < 0.001), respectively; and the median OS was not reached, 55.0 and 33.0 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions: We developed two novel nomograms to predict the incidence of CRPC and OS for patients with de novo metastatic PCa. These tools may assist in physician decision-making and the designing of clinical trials.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)994-1002
Number of pages9
JournalBJU International
Volume122
Issue number6
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2018

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Nomograms
Castration
Prostatic Neoplasms
Bone and Bones
Survival
Carcinoma, Intraductal, Noninfiltrating
Neoplasm Grading
Incidence
Prostate
Prostate-Specific Antigen
Proportional Hazards Models
Alkaline Phosphatase
Decision Making
Hemoglobins
Clinical Trials
Physicians

Keywords

  • #pcsm
  • #ProstateCancer
  • castration-resistant prostate cancer
  • nomogram
  • predictive model
  • risk classification system

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Urology

Cite this

Novel nomograms for castration-resistant prostate cancer and survival outcome in patients with de novo bone metastatic prostate cancer. / Zhao, Jinge; Sun, Guangxi; Liao, Banghua; Zhang, Xingming; Armstrong, Cameron M.; Yin, Xiaoxue; Liu, Jiandong; Chen, Junru; Yang, Yaojing; Zhao, Peng; Tang, Qidun; Wang, Zhenghao; Chen, Zhibin; Li, Xiong; Wei, Qiang; Li, Xiang; Chen, Ni; Gao, Allen C; Shen, Pengfei; Zeng, Hao.

In: BJU International, Vol. 122, No. 6, 01.12.2018, p. 994-1002.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Zhao, J, Sun, G, Liao, B, Zhang, X, Armstrong, CM, Yin, X, Liu, J, Chen, J, Yang, Y, Zhao, P, Tang, Q, Wang, Z, Chen, Z, Li, X, Wei, Q, Li, X, Chen, N, Gao, AC, Shen, P & Zeng, H 2018, 'Novel nomograms for castration-resistant prostate cancer and survival outcome in patients with de novo bone metastatic prostate cancer', BJU International, vol. 122, no. 6, pp. 994-1002. https://doi.org/10.1111/bju.14398
Zhao, Jinge ; Sun, Guangxi ; Liao, Banghua ; Zhang, Xingming ; Armstrong, Cameron M. ; Yin, Xiaoxue ; Liu, Jiandong ; Chen, Junru ; Yang, Yaojing ; Zhao, Peng ; Tang, Qidun ; Wang, Zhenghao ; Chen, Zhibin ; Li, Xiong ; Wei, Qiang ; Li, Xiang ; Chen, Ni ; Gao, Allen C ; Shen, Pengfei ; Zeng, Hao. / Novel nomograms for castration-resistant prostate cancer and survival outcome in patients with de novo bone metastatic prostate cancer. In: BJU International. 2018 ; Vol. 122, No. 6. pp. 994-1002.
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abstract = "Objectives: To develop nomograms predicting the incidence of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and overall survival (OS) for de novo metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: Data from 449 patients with de novo metastatic PCa were retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 314, 70{\%}) and a validation cohort (n = 135, 30{\%}). Predictive factors were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model and were further used for building predictive models. The outcomes were incidence of CRPC and OS. Results: Predictive factors included: Gleason score (GS), intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, and alkaline phosphatase, haemoglobin and prostate-specific antigen levels. IDC-P and GS were the strongest prognosticators for both the incidence of CRPC and OS. Nomograms for predicting CRPC and OS had an internal validated concordance index of 0.762 and 0.723, respectively. Based on the β coefficients of the final model, risk classification systems were constructed. For those with favourable, intermediate and poor prognosis, the median time to CRPC was 62.6, 28.0 and 13.0 months (P < 0.001), respectively; and the median OS was not reached, 55.0 and 33.0 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions: We developed two novel nomograms to predict the incidence of CRPC and OS for patients with de novo metastatic PCa. These tools may assist in physician decision-making and the designing of clinical trials.",
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author = "Jinge Zhao and Guangxi Sun and Banghua Liao and Xingming Zhang and Armstrong, {Cameron M.} and Xiaoxue Yin and Jiandong Liu and Junru Chen and Yaojing Yang and Peng Zhao and Qidun Tang and Zhenghao Wang and Zhibin Chen and Xiong Li and Qiang Wei and Xiang Li and Ni Chen and Gao, {Allen C} and Pengfei Shen and Hao Zeng",
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T1 - Novel nomograms for castration-resistant prostate cancer and survival outcome in patients with de novo bone metastatic prostate cancer

AU - Zhao, Jinge

AU - Sun, Guangxi

AU - Liao, Banghua

AU - Zhang, Xingming

AU - Armstrong, Cameron M.

AU - Yin, Xiaoxue

AU - Liu, Jiandong

AU - Chen, Junru

AU - Yang, Yaojing

AU - Zhao, Peng

AU - Tang, Qidun

AU - Wang, Zhenghao

AU - Chen, Zhibin

AU - Li, Xiong

AU - Wei, Qiang

AU - Li, Xiang

AU - Chen, Ni

AU - Gao, Allen C

AU - Shen, Pengfei

AU - Zeng, Hao

PY - 2018/12/1

Y1 - 2018/12/1

N2 - Objectives: To develop nomograms predicting the incidence of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and overall survival (OS) for de novo metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: Data from 449 patients with de novo metastatic PCa were retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 314, 70%) and a validation cohort (n = 135, 30%). Predictive factors were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model and were further used for building predictive models. The outcomes were incidence of CRPC and OS. Results: Predictive factors included: Gleason score (GS), intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, and alkaline phosphatase, haemoglobin and prostate-specific antigen levels. IDC-P and GS were the strongest prognosticators for both the incidence of CRPC and OS. Nomograms for predicting CRPC and OS had an internal validated concordance index of 0.762 and 0.723, respectively. Based on the β coefficients of the final model, risk classification systems were constructed. For those with favourable, intermediate and poor prognosis, the median time to CRPC was 62.6, 28.0 and 13.0 months (P < 0.001), respectively; and the median OS was not reached, 55.0 and 33.0 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions: We developed two novel nomograms to predict the incidence of CRPC and OS for patients with de novo metastatic PCa. These tools may assist in physician decision-making and the designing of clinical trials.

AB - Objectives: To develop nomograms predicting the incidence of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and overall survival (OS) for de novo metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). Patients and Methods: Data from 449 patients with de novo metastatic PCa were retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly divided into a training (n = 314, 70%) and a validation cohort (n = 135, 30%). Predictive factors were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model and were further used for building predictive models. The outcomes were incidence of CRPC and OS. Results: Predictive factors included: Gleason score (GS), intraductal carcinoma of the prostate (IDC-P), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, and alkaline phosphatase, haemoglobin and prostate-specific antigen levels. IDC-P and GS were the strongest prognosticators for both the incidence of CRPC and OS. Nomograms for predicting CRPC and OS had an internal validated concordance index of 0.762 and 0.723, respectively. Based on the β coefficients of the final model, risk classification systems were constructed. For those with favourable, intermediate and poor prognosis, the median time to CRPC was 62.6, 28.0 and 13.0 months (P < 0.001), respectively; and the median OS was not reached, 55.0 and 33.0 months, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions: We developed two novel nomograms to predict the incidence of CRPC and OS for patients with de novo metastatic PCa. These tools may assist in physician decision-making and the designing of clinical trials.

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KW - #ProstateCancer

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KW - nomogram

KW - predictive model

KW - risk classification system

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