Municipal budget forecasting with multivariate ARMA models

G. W. Downs; David M Rocke

doi:10.1002/for.3980020407

Municipal budget forecasting with multivariate ARMA models

G. W. Downs, David M Rocke

Public Health Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper multivariate ARMA models are applied to the problem of forecasting city budget variables. Unlike univariate time‐series methods, multivariate models can use relationships among budget variables as well as relationships with economic and demographic indicators. Although available budget series are shorter than what is usually believed necessary for multivariate ARMA modelling, the forecasts seem to be of higher quality than those from univariate models.

Original language	English (US)
Pages (from-to)	377-387
Number of pages	11
Journal	Journal of Forecasting
Volume	2
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980020407
State	Published - 1983

Keywords

Forecasting
Multivariate ARMA models
Municipal finance
Public finance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Modeling and Simulation
Computer Science Applications
Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Strategy and Management
Management Science and Operations Research

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10.1002/for.3980020407

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abstract = "In this paper multivariate ARMA models are applied to the problem of forecasting city budget variables. Unlike univariate time‐series methods, multivariate models can use relationships among budget variables as well as relationships with economic and demographic indicators. Although available budget series are shorter than what is usually believed necessary for multivariate ARMA modelling, the forecasts seem to be of higher quality than those from univariate models.",

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