Municipal budget forecasting with multivariate ARMA models

G. W. Downs, David M Rocke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Scopus citations

Abstract

In this paper multivariate ARMA models are applied to the problem of forecasting city budget variables. Unlike univariate time‐series methods, multivariate models can use relationships among budget variables as well as relationships with economic and demographic indicators. Although available budget series are shorter than what is usually believed necessary for multivariate ARMA modelling, the forecasts seem to be of higher quality than those from univariate models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)377-387
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume2
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 1983

Keywords

  • Forecasting
  • Multivariate ARMA models
  • Municipal finance
  • Public finance

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research

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