Abstract
In this paper multivariate ARMA models are applied to the problem of forecasting city budget variables. Unlike univariate time‐series methods, multivariate models can use relationships among budget variables as well as relationships with economic and demographic indicators. Although available budget series are shorter than what is usually believed necessary for multivariate ARMA modelling, the forecasts seem to be of higher quality than those from univariate models.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 377-387 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Journal of Forecasting |
| Volume | 2 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - 1983 |
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Keywords
- Forecasting
- Multivariate ARMA models
- Municipal finance
- Public finance
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Modeling and Simulation
- Computer Science Applications
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
- Strategy and Management
- Management Science and Operations Research
Cite this
Municipal budget forecasting with multivariate ARMA models. / Downs, G. W.; Rocke, David M.
In: Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1983, p. 377-387.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Municipal budget forecasting with multivariate ARMA models
AU - Downs, G. W.
AU - Rocke, David M
PY - 1983
Y1 - 1983
N2 - In this paper multivariate ARMA models are applied to the problem of forecasting city budget variables. Unlike univariate time‐series methods, multivariate models can use relationships among budget variables as well as relationships with economic and demographic indicators. Although available budget series are shorter than what is usually believed necessary for multivariate ARMA modelling, the forecasts seem to be of higher quality than those from univariate models.
AB - In this paper multivariate ARMA models are applied to the problem of forecasting city budget variables. Unlike univariate time‐series methods, multivariate models can use relationships among budget variables as well as relationships with economic and demographic indicators. Although available budget series are shorter than what is usually believed necessary for multivariate ARMA modelling, the forecasts seem to be of higher quality than those from univariate models.
KW - Forecasting
KW - Multivariate ARMA models
KW - Municipal finance
KW - Public finance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84984434310&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84984434310&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/for.3980020407
DO - 10.1002/for.3980020407
M3 - Article
VL - 2
SP - 377
EP - 387
JO - Journal of Forecasting
JF - Journal of Forecasting
SN - 0277-6693
IS - 4
ER -