Modeling spatial variation in area source emissions

Jian Dai, David M Rocke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations


Urban and regional air quality needs to be analyzed at various geographical scales. Area source emission inventories usually estimate total emissions for various industrial and commercial activities at the county or larger scales. Consequently, information on spatial variation of emissions within a county, a critical requirement for urban airshed modeling, is largely unavailable. This paper proposes a Poisson regression approach that enables us to model small-area variation in source activities and to allocate county or region wide emission estimates to subcounty units. The new approach is used to model the spatial distribution of automobile refinishing activities in the Sacramento modeling region in California. The paper addresses the problem of overdispersion of variance in Poisson regression and evaluates the effect of grid location on modeling results. The usefulness of geographical information systems in spatial statistical analysis is demonstrated.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)7-21
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Issue number1
StatePublished - Mar 2000


  • Air pollution
  • Grid effects
  • Overdispersion
  • Poisson regression

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Environmental Science(all)
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Statistics and Probability


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