Microcomputer programs for markov and modified markov chain disease models

Two simulation models were created using an electronic spreadsheet. The models, IV and V, were developed from a multi-agent mastisis example and assumed Markov and modified Markov chain processes, respectively. Model IV simulated disease occurrence in which the probability of transmission remained constant. Model V simulated disease occurrence in a population which had constant state transition probability rates, except for those of a single agent, which were assumed to be dynamic and follow the assumptions of the classic Reed-Frost model. The methodology developed for these models should be easily adopted to other disease problems in either human or veterinary medicine.