Evolução dos homicídios e indicadores de segurança pública no Município de São Paulo entre 1996 a 2008: Um estudo ecológico de séries temporais

Translated title of the contribution: Homicide and public security indicator trends in the city of São Paulo between 1996 and 2008: A time-series ecological study

Maria Fernanda Tourinho Peres, Juliana Feliciano de Almeida, Diego Vicentin, Caren Ruotti, Marcelo Batista Nery, Magdalena Cerda, Nancy Cardia, Sérgio Adorno

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in São Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with São Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata.IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In São Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in São Paulo.

Original languagePortuguese
Pages (from-to)3249-3257
Number of pages9
JournalCiencia e Saude Coletiva
Volume17
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2012
Externally publishedYes

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Homicide
Unemployment
Firearms
Police
Statistical Models
Software
Regression Analysis
Demography
Population

Keywords

  • Determinants
  • Ecological studies
  • Homicides
  • Mortality
  • Time series

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Health Policy

Cite this

Evolução dos homicídios e indicadores de segurança pública no Município de São Paulo entre 1996 a 2008 : Um estudo ecológico de séries temporais. / Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho; de Almeida, Juliana Feliciano; Vicentin, Diego; Ruotti, Caren; Nery, Marcelo Batista; Cerda, Magdalena; Cardia, Nancy; Adorno, Sérgio.

In: Ciencia e Saude Coletiva, Vol. 17, No. 12, 01.12.2012, p. 3249-3257.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Peres, Maria Fernanda Tourinho ; de Almeida, Juliana Feliciano ; Vicentin, Diego ; Ruotti, Caren ; Nery, Marcelo Batista ; Cerda, Magdalena ; Cardia, Nancy ; Adorno, Sérgio. / Evolução dos homicídios e indicadores de segurança pública no Município de São Paulo entre 1996 a 2008 : Um estudo ecológico de séries temporais. In: Ciencia e Saude Coletiva. 2012 ; Vol. 17, No. 12. pp. 3249-3257.
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