Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Predicts Mortality and End-Stage Renal Disease in a Canadian Asian Population with Chronic Kidney Disease

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Biomarkers that predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and/or mortality could usher in new therapeutics to halt this onslaught. While fibroblast growth factor (FGF)23 can predict both ESRD and mortality, it has not been studied in North American CKD patients of Asian ethnicity. Method: This is a prospective investigation about the role of FGF23 in 998 Canadian patients of Asian descent with CKD defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/m² and followed up for 3 years. Results: The mean age of patients was 68.9 years and 68.3% were males. The mean (range) eGFR, and median FGF23 were 40.2 (11.0-59.0) mL/min and 154.1 (7.0-7,823.0) RU/mL, respectively. Over the 3 years, higher values of FGF23 levels at baseline were associated with higher risk of ESRD (hazard ratio [HR] for log[Fgf23] = 2.16 [95% CI 1.20-3.89]). Despite the short follow-up, 42 patients died due to cardiovascular diseases (38.8%), cancer (14.9%), and infections (12.7%). Log-FGF23 levels were independently associated with death, HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.24-3.03. Mortality risk increased in FGF23 subgroups from <100 to >400 RU/mL. In a time-changing covariate analysis, serial log-FGF23 levels over the 3 years predicted mortality with a HR of 2.66 (95% CI 1. 79-3.95). Conclusion: In a Canadian Asian population with CKD, FGF23 levels obtained at 6-monthly intervals for 3 years predicted ESRD and mortality suggesting that it is also a risk marker in Asians.