Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot-and-mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging

R. B. Garabed, W. O. Johnson, J. Gill, A. M. Perez, Mark Thurmond

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using Bayesian model averaging, we quantify associations of governance and economic health with country level presence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and estimate the probability of the presence of FMD in each country from 1997 to 2005. The Bayesian model averaging accounted for countries' previous FMD status and other possible confounders, as well as uncertainty about the 'true' model, and provided accurate predictions (90% specificity and 80% sensitivity). This model represents a novel approach to predicting FMD, and other conditions, on a global scale and in identifying important risk factors that can be applied to global policy and allocation of resources for disease control.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)699-722
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
Volume171
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 1 2008

Fingerprint

Bayesian Model Averaging
Governance
Economics
governance
Disease
economics
Risk Factors
Specificity
Health
Quantify
Bayesian model averaging
Foot and mouth disease
uncertainty
Uncertainty
Resources
Prediction
health
resources
Model
Estimate

Keywords

  • Animal disease
  • Economic health
  • Expert opinion
  • Political voice
  • Prediction

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

Cite this

Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot-and-mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging. / Garabed, R. B.; Johnson, W. O.; Gill, J.; Perez, A. M.; Thurmond, Mark.

In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 171, No. 3, 01.06.2008, p. 699-722.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{7d3156f5193e4cabbf9178fb86aa321c,
title = "Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot-and-mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging",
abstract = "Using Bayesian model averaging, we quantify associations of governance and economic health with country level presence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and estimate the probability of the presence of FMD in each country from 1997 to 2005. The Bayesian model averaging accounted for countries' previous FMD status and other possible confounders, as well as uncertainty about the 'true' model, and provided accurate predictions (90{\%} specificity and 80{\%} sensitivity). This model represents a novel approach to predicting FMD, and other conditions, on a global scale and in identifying important risk factors that can be applied to global policy and allocation of resources for disease control.",
keywords = "Animal disease, Economic health, Expert opinion, Political voice, Prediction",
author = "Garabed, {R. B.} and Johnson, {W. O.} and J. Gill and Perez, {A. M.} and Mark Thurmond",
year = "2008",
month = "6",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00534.x",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "171",
pages = "699--722",
journal = "Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society",
issn = "0964-1998",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot-and-mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging

AU - Garabed, R. B.

AU - Johnson, W. O.

AU - Gill, J.

AU - Perez, A. M.

AU - Thurmond, Mark

PY - 2008/6/1

Y1 - 2008/6/1

N2 - Using Bayesian model averaging, we quantify associations of governance and economic health with country level presence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and estimate the probability of the presence of FMD in each country from 1997 to 2005. The Bayesian model averaging accounted for countries' previous FMD status and other possible confounders, as well as uncertainty about the 'true' model, and provided accurate predictions (90% specificity and 80% sensitivity). This model represents a novel approach to predicting FMD, and other conditions, on a global scale and in identifying important risk factors that can be applied to global policy and allocation of resources for disease control.

AB - Using Bayesian model averaging, we quantify associations of governance and economic health with country level presence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and estimate the probability of the presence of FMD in each country from 1997 to 2005. The Bayesian model averaging accounted for countries' previous FMD status and other possible confounders, as well as uncertainty about the 'true' model, and provided accurate predictions (90% specificity and 80% sensitivity). This model represents a novel approach to predicting FMD, and other conditions, on a global scale and in identifying important risk factors that can be applied to global policy and allocation of resources for disease control.

KW - Animal disease

KW - Economic health

KW - Expert opinion

KW - Political voice

KW - Prediction

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=43949133849&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=43949133849&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00534.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00534.x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:43949133849

VL - 171

SP - 699

EP - 722

JO - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

JF - Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

SN - 0964-1998

IS - 3

ER -