Evaluation of the impact of live pig trade network, vaccination coverage and socio-economic factors in the classical swine fever eradication program in Peru

J. P. Gómez-Vázquez, M. Quevedo-Valle, U. Flores, K. Portilla Jarufe, Beatriz Martinez Lopez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral infectious disease of swine with significant economic impact in the affected countries due to the limitation of trade, culling of infected animals and production losses. In Latin America, CSF is endemic in several countries including Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Peru. Since 2010, the National Veterinary Services of Peru have been working to better control and eradicate the disease with an intensive vaccination program. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination program and determine which factors are still contributing to the persistence of the disease in certain regions of Peru. We integrated the data from the vaccination campaign, the live pig movement network and other socioeconomic indicators into a multilevel logistic regression model to evaluate their association with CSF occurrence at district level. The results revealed that high vaccination coverage significantly reduces the risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 0.07), supporting the effectiveness of the vaccination program. Districts belonging to large and medium pig trade network communities (as identified with walktrap algorithm) had higher probability to CSF occurrence (OR = 2.83 and OR = 5.83, respectively). The human development index (HDI) and the presence of a slaughterhouse in the district was also significantly associated with an increased likelihood of CSF occurrence (OR = 1.52 and OR = 3.25, respectively). Districts receiving a high proportion of the movements from districts that were infected in the previous year were also at higher risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 3.30). These results should be useful to guide the prioritization of vaccination strategies and may help to design other intervention strategies (e.g., target education, movement restrictions, etc.) in high-risk areas to more rapidly advance in the eradication of CSF in Peru.

LanguageEnglish (US)
Pages29-37
Number of pages9
JournalPreventive veterinary medicine
Volume162
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019

Fingerprint

Classical Swine Fever
hog cholera
Peru
socioeconomic factors
Vaccination
Swine
vaccination
Economics
swine
Program Evaluation
Logistic Models
Bolivia
Ecuador
Immunization Programs
culling (animals)
Abattoirs
prioritization
human development
Latin America
Human Development

Keywords

  • GLMM
  • Modeling
  • Network analysis
  • Risk-based surveillance
  • Spatio-temporal analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Food Animals
  • Animal Science and Zoology

Cite this

Evaluation of the impact of live pig trade network, vaccination coverage and socio-economic factors in the classical swine fever eradication program in Peru. / Gómez-Vázquez, J. P.; Quevedo-Valle, M.; Flores, U.; Portilla Jarufe, K.; Martinez Lopez, Beatriz.

In: Preventive veterinary medicine, Vol. 162, 01.01.2019, p. 29-37.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{abfeb628738f4ed3abe93cc9c80fb685,
title = "Evaluation of the impact of live pig trade network, vaccination coverage and socio-economic factors in the classical swine fever eradication program in Peru",
abstract = "Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral infectious disease of swine with significant economic impact in the affected countries due to the limitation of trade, culling of infected animals and production losses. In Latin America, CSF is endemic in several countries including Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Peru. Since 2010, the National Veterinary Services of Peru have been working to better control and eradicate the disease with an intensive vaccination program. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination program and determine which factors are still contributing to the persistence of the disease in certain regions of Peru. We integrated the data from the vaccination campaign, the live pig movement network and other socioeconomic indicators into a multilevel logistic regression model to evaluate their association with CSF occurrence at district level. The results revealed that high vaccination coverage significantly reduces the risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 0.07), supporting the effectiveness of the vaccination program. Districts belonging to large and medium pig trade network communities (as identified with walktrap algorithm) had higher probability to CSF occurrence (OR = 2.83 and OR = 5.83, respectively). The human development index (HDI) and the presence of a slaughterhouse in the district was also significantly associated with an increased likelihood of CSF occurrence (OR = 1.52 and OR = 3.25, respectively). Districts receiving a high proportion of the movements from districts that were infected in the previous year were also at higher risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 3.30). These results should be useful to guide the prioritization of vaccination strategies and may help to design other intervention strategies (e.g., target education, movement restrictions, etc.) in high-risk areas to more rapidly advance in the eradication of CSF in Peru.",
keywords = "GLMM, Modeling, Network analysis, Risk-based surveillance, Spatio-temporal analysis",
author = "G{\'o}mez-V{\'a}zquez, {J. P.} and M. Quevedo-Valle and U. Flores and {Portilla Jarufe}, K. and {Martinez Lopez}, Beatriz",
year = "2019",
month = "1",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.10.019",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "162",
pages = "29--37",
journal = "Preventive Veterinary Medicine",
issn = "0167-5877",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Evaluation of the impact of live pig trade network, vaccination coverage and socio-economic factors in the classical swine fever eradication program in Peru

AU - Gómez-Vázquez, J. P.

AU - Quevedo-Valle, M.

AU - Flores, U.

AU - Portilla Jarufe, K.

AU - Martinez Lopez, Beatriz

PY - 2019/1/1

Y1 - 2019/1/1

N2 - Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral infectious disease of swine with significant economic impact in the affected countries due to the limitation of trade, culling of infected animals and production losses. In Latin America, CSF is endemic in several countries including Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Peru. Since 2010, the National Veterinary Services of Peru have been working to better control and eradicate the disease with an intensive vaccination program. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination program and determine which factors are still contributing to the persistence of the disease in certain regions of Peru. We integrated the data from the vaccination campaign, the live pig movement network and other socioeconomic indicators into a multilevel logistic regression model to evaluate their association with CSF occurrence at district level. The results revealed that high vaccination coverage significantly reduces the risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 0.07), supporting the effectiveness of the vaccination program. Districts belonging to large and medium pig trade network communities (as identified with walktrap algorithm) had higher probability to CSF occurrence (OR = 2.83 and OR = 5.83, respectively). The human development index (HDI) and the presence of a slaughterhouse in the district was also significantly associated with an increased likelihood of CSF occurrence (OR = 1.52 and OR = 3.25, respectively). Districts receiving a high proportion of the movements from districts that were infected in the previous year were also at higher risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 3.30). These results should be useful to guide the prioritization of vaccination strategies and may help to design other intervention strategies (e.g., target education, movement restrictions, etc.) in high-risk areas to more rapidly advance in the eradication of CSF in Peru.

AB - Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral infectious disease of swine with significant economic impact in the affected countries due to the limitation of trade, culling of infected animals and production losses. In Latin America, CSF is endemic in several countries including Ecuador, Bolivia, Brazil and Peru. Since 2010, the National Veterinary Services of Peru have been working to better control and eradicate the disease with an intensive vaccination program. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination program and determine which factors are still contributing to the persistence of the disease in certain regions of Peru. We integrated the data from the vaccination campaign, the live pig movement network and other socioeconomic indicators into a multilevel logistic regression model to evaluate their association with CSF occurrence at district level. The results revealed that high vaccination coverage significantly reduces the risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 0.07), supporting the effectiveness of the vaccination program. Districts belonging to large and medium pig trade network communities (as identified with walktrap algorithm) had higher probability to CSF occurrence (OR = 2.83 and OR = 5.83, respectively). The human development index (HDI) and the presence of a slaughterhouse in the district was also significantly associated with an increased likelihood of CSF occurrence (OR = 1.52 and OR = 3.25, respectively). Districts receiving a high proportion of the movements from districts that were infected in the previous year were also at higher risk of CSF occurrence (OR = 3.30). These results should be useful to guide the prioritization of vaccination strategies and may help to design other intervention strategies (e.g., target education, movement restrictions, etc.) in high-risk areas to more rapidly advance in the eradication of CSF in Peru.

KW - GLMM

KW - Modeling

KW - Network analysis

KW - Risk-based surveillance

KW - Spatio-temporal analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85056665122&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85056665122&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.10.019

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.10.019

M3 - Article

VL - 162

SP - 29

EP - 37

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

T2 - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

SN - 0167-5877

ER -