TY - JOUR
T1 - Early warning system for west nile virus risk areas, california, usa
AU - Carney, Ryan M.
AU - Ahearn, Sean C.
AU - McConchie, Alan
AU - Glaser, Carol
AU - Jean, Cynthia
AU - Barker, Chris
AU - Park, Bborie
AU - Padgett, Kerry
AU - Parker, Erin
AU - Aquino, Ervic
AU - Kramer, Vicki
PY - 2011/8/1
Y1 - 2011/8/1
N2 - The Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time (DYCAST) system is a biologically based spatiotemporal model that uses public reports of dead birds to identify areas at high risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In 2005, during a statewide epidemic of WNV (880 cases), the California Department of Public Health prospectively implemented DYCAST over 32,517 km 2 in California. Daily risk maps were made available online and used by local agencies to target public education campaigns, surveillance, and mosquito control. DYCAST had 80.8% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity for predicting human cases, and κ analysis indicated moderate strength of chance-adjusted agreement for >4 weeks. High-risk grid cells (populations) were identified an average of 37.2 days before onset of human illness; relative risk for disease was >39× higher than for low-risk cells. Although prediction rates declined in subsequent years, results indicate DYCAST was a timely and effective early warning system during the severe 2005 epidemic.
AB - The Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time (DYCAST) system is a biologically based spatiotemporal model that uses public reports of dead birds to identify areas at high risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission to humans. In 2005, during a statewide epidemic of WNV (880 cases), the California Department of Public Health prospectively implemented DYCAST over 32,517 km 2 in California. Daily risk maps were made available online and used by local agencies to target public education campaigns, surveillance, and mosquito control. DYCAST had 80.8% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity for predicting human cases, and κ analysis indicated moderate strength of chance-adjusted agreement for >4 weeks. High-risk grid cells (populations) were identified an average of 37.2 days before onset of human illness; relative risk for disease was >39× higher than for low-risk cells. Although prediction rates declined in subsequent years, results indicate DYCAST was a timely and effective early warning system during the severe 2005 epidemic.
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U2 - 10.3201/eid1708.100411
DO - 10.3201/eid1708.100411
M3 - Article
C2 - 21801622
AN - SCOPUS:79960849398
VL - 17
SP - 1445
EP - 1454
JO - Emerging Infectious Diseases
JF - Emerging Infectious Diseases
SN - 1080-6040
IS - 8
ER -