Abstract
Background & Aims Approaches to risk stratification for patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) are limited, single-center based, and often dichotomous. We aimed to develop and validate a better model for determining prognoses of patients with PBC. Methods We performed an international, multicenter meta-analysis of 4119 patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid at liver centers in 8 European and North American countries. Patients were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 2488 [60%]) and validation cohorts (n = 1631 [40%]). A risk score (GLOBE score) to predict transplantation-free survival was developed and validated with univariate and multivariable Cox regression analyses using clinical and biochemical variables obtained after 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid therapy. Risk score outcomes were compared with the survival of age-, sex-, and calendar time-matched members of the general population. The prognostic ability of the GLOBE score was evaluated alongside those of the Barcelona, Paris-1, Rotterdam, Toronto, and Paris-2 criteria. Results Age (hazard ratio = 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.06; P 0.30 had significantly shorter times of transplant-free survival than matched healthy individuals (P
Original language | English (US) |
---|---|
Pages (from-to) | 1804-1812e4 |
Journal | Gastroenterology |
Volume | 149 |
Issue number | 7 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Dec 1 2015 |
Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Autoimmune Liver Disease
- Cholestasis
- Predictive Factor
- Prognosis
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Gastroenterology