Comparison of enzootic risk measures for predicting West Nile disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004-2010

Jennifer L. Kwan, Bborie K. Park, Tim Carpenter, Van Ngo, Rachel Civen, William Reisen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

34 Scopus citations

Abstract

In Los Angeles, California, USA, 2 epidemics of West Nile virus (WNV) disease have occurred since WNV was recognized in 2003. To assess which measure of risk was most predictive of human cases, we compared 3 measures: the California Mosquito-Borne Virus Surveillance and Response Plan Assessment, the vector index, and the Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system. A case-crossover study was performed by using symptom onset dates from 384 persons with WNV infection to determine their relative environmental exposure to high-risk conditions as measured by each method. Receiver-operating characteristic plots determined thresholds for each model, and the area under the curve was used to compare methods. We found that the best risk assessment model for human WNV cases included surveillance data from avian, mosquito, and climate sources.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1298-1306
Number of pages9
JournalEmerging Infectious Diseases
Volume18
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 1 2012

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Epidemiology
  • Microbiology (medical)
  • Infectious Diseases

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Comparison of enzootic risk measures for predicting West Nile disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004-2010'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this