Comparative Assessment of Analytical Approaches to Quantify the Risk for Introduction of Rare Animal Diseases

The Example of Avian Influenza in Spain

Fernando Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Andrés Perez, Beatriz Martinez Lopez, José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1433-1440
Number of pages8
JournalRisk Analysis
Volume32
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2012
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Animal Diseases
Influenza in Birds
Rare Diseases
Spain
Animals
Statistical Models
Risk assessment
European Union
Health risks
Risk analysis
Health
Population

Keywords

  • Avian influenza
  • Ordinal model
  • Quantitative risk assessment
  • Spain
  • Trade

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Physiology (medical)
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Cite this

Comparative Assessment of Analytical Approaches to Quantify the Risk for Introduction of Rare Animal Diseases : The Example of Avian Influenza in Spain. / Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Perez, Andrés; Martinez Lopez, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel.

In: Risk Analysis, Vol. 32, No. 8, 08.2012, p. 1433-1440.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando ; Perez, Andrés ; Martinez Lopez, Beatriz ; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel. / Comparative Assessment of Analytical Approaches to Quantify the Risk for Introduction of Rare Animal Diseases : The Example of Avian Influenza in Spain. In: Risk Analysis. 2012 ; Vol. 32, No. 8. pp. 1433-1440.
@article{f4a22dcd4e484551b67eee97de267a09,
title = "Comparative Assessment of Analytical Approaches to Quantify the Risk for Introduction of Rare Animal Diseases: The Example of Avian Influenza in Spain",
abstract = "Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries.",
keywords = "Avian influenza, Ordinal model, Quantitative risk assessment, Spain, Trade",
author = "Fernando S{\'a}nchez-Vizca{\'i}no and Andr{\'e}s Perez and {Martinez Lopez}, Beatriz and S{\'a}nchez-Vizca{\'i}no, {Jos{\'e} Manuel}",
year = "2012",
month = "8",
doi = "10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01744.x",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "32",
pages = "1433--1440",
journal = "Risk Analysis",
issn = "0272-4332",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "8",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparative Assessment of Analytical Approaches to Quantify the Risk for Introduction of Rare Animal Diseases

T2 - The Example of Avian Influenza in Spain

AU - Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando

AU - Perez, Andrés

AU - Martinez Lopez, Beatriz

AU - Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

PY - 2012/8

Y1 - 2012/8

N2 - Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries.

AB - Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries.

KW - Avian influenza

KW - Ordinal model

KW - Quantitative risk assessment

KW - Spain

KW - Trade

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84865095579&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84865095579&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01744.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01744.x

M3 - Article

VL - 32

SP - 1433

EP - 1440

JO - Risk Analysis

JF - Risk Analysis

SN - 0272-4332

IS - 8

ER -