Chronic kidney disease and the risk of end-stage renal disease versus death

Lorien Dalrymple, Ronit Katz, Bryan Kestenbaum, Michael G. Shlipak, Mark J. Sarnak, Catherine Stehman-Breen, Stephen Seliger, David Siscovick, Anne B. Newman, Linda Fried

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

141 Scopus citations


BACKGROUND: Among older adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD), the comparative event rates of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and cause-specific death are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare the rates of ESRD, cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular death and examine risk factors for ESRD and all-cause mortality in Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants. Design: The CHS is a longitudinal cohort study of community-dwelling adults aged 65 years and older. PARTICIPANTS: 1,268 participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 were followed until the time of first event (ESRD, cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular death) or until March 31, 2003. MAIN MEASURES: The outcomes were ESRD, cardiovascular- and non-cardiovascular death. Rates of each event were calculated, and a Cox Proportional Hazards Model with a competing risk framework was used to examine risk factors for ESRD as compared with death. Predictors included age, gender, race, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, tobacco use, eGFR, and total cholesterol. KEY RESULTS: During 9.7 years of follow-up, 5% of the cohort progressed to ESRD, and 61% of the cohort died. The rate (per 100 person-years) was 0.5 for ESRD and 6.8 for all-cause mortality (3.0 for cardiovascular and 3.8 for non-cardiovascular mortality). In the competing risk framework, lower eGFR, male gender, African-American race, and higher BMI were associated with an increased risk of ESRD. CONCLUSIONS: Older adults with CKD are 13-fold more likely to die from any cause than progress to ESRD and are 6-fold more likely to die from cardiovascular causes than develop ESRD.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)379-385
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of General Internal Medicine
Issue number4
StatePublished - Apr 2011


  • cardiovascular disease
  • clinical epidemiology
  • renal disease

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Internal Medicine


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