Ability of the clinician and patient to predict the outcome of mifepristone and misoprostol medical abortion

We performed this analysis to evaluate the ability of both women and their clinicians to predict pregnancy expulsion after using mifepristone and misoprostol for medical abortion up to 63 days gestation. Women who participated in a multicenter, randomized trial comparing misoprostol 6-8 h vs. 23-25 h after mifepristone attended a follow-up visit approximately 7 days after mifepristone treatment. Each subject was asked if she felt she had expelled the gestational sac. Clinicians also assessed if the sac had been expelled based on the woman's history. Vaginal ultrasonography was then performed to assess the uterine cavity. Of the 1080 women enrolled in the multicenter study, 931 (86.2%) who attended the first follow-up visit by study day 12 and did not have a uterine suction aspiration prior to this visit were included in this analysis. Vaginal ultrasonography at the first follow-up visit demonstrated expulsion in 915 [98.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 97.2-99.0] women. Overall, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for subjects were 96.5%, 31.3%, 98.8% and 13.5%, respectively. When both the clinician and patient felt that the gestational sac had passed (n = 880 [94.5%, 95% CI: 92.9-95.9]), expulsion was confirmed by sonography in 99.1% (95% CI: 98.2-99.6) of cases. Women and clinicians are very accurate at determining expulsion of gestational sac during medical abortion with mifepristone and misoprostol without ultrasonography or a physical examination.