A stochastic model to quantify the risk of introduction of classical swine fever virus through import of domestic and wild boars

Beatriz Martinez Lopez, A. M. Perez, J. M. Sánchez-Vizcaíno

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Scopus citations


Classical swine fever (CSF) is a disease of pigs that imposes major hardship on the industry of infected regions. The recent history of CSF epidemics suggests that animal movements remain the main source of CSF virus (CSFV) infection for susceptible populations in Europe. This study presents an assessment of the risk of introducing CSFV into Spain through the importation of live susceptible animals. Results suggest that, if prevailing conditions persist, introduction of CSFV into Spain is likely to occur on average every 9 years and that introduction is almost three times more likely to occur via domestic pigs than through wild boars. The highest risk was concentrated in March and in the Northeastern provinces of Spain. Results were consistent with the time and location of previous CSFV introductions into the country. The methodology and the results presented here will contribute to improve the CSF prevention programme in Spain.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1505-1515
Number of pages11
JournalEpidemiology and Infection
Issue number10
StatePublished - Oct 2009
Externally publishedYes



  • Classical swine fever (CSF)
  • Quantitative risk assessment
  • Spain
  • Swine imports
  • Wild boars

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Epidemiology

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