A prognostic model for advanced stage nonsmall cell lung cancer: Pooled analysis of north central cancer treatment group trials

Sumithra J. Mandrekar, Steven E. Schild, Shauna L. Hillman, Katie L. Allen, Randolph S. Marks, James A. Mailliard, James E. Krook, Andrew W. Maksymiuk, Kari Chansky, Karen Kelly, Alex A. Adjei, James R. Jett

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

93 Scopus citations


BACKGROUND. A pooled analysis was performed to examine the impact of pretreatment factors on overall survival (OS) and time to progression (TTP) in patients with advanced-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to construct a prediction equation for OS using pretreatment factors. METHODS. A pooled data set of 1053 patients from 9 North Central Cancer Treatment Group trials was used. Age, gender, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (PS), tumor stage (Stage IIIB vs. Stage IV), body mass index (BMI), creatinine level, hemoglobin (Hgb) level, white blood cell (WBC) count, and platelet count were evaluated for their prognostic significance in both univariate and multivariate analyses by using a Cox proportional-hazards model. RESULTS. Patients who had high WBC counts, low Hgb levels, PS >0, BMI <18.5 kg/m2, and TNM Stage IV disease had significantly worse TTP and OS. Patients who had Stage IV disease with a high WBC count had a particularly poor prognosis. An equation to predict the OS of patients with Stage IV NSCLC based on pretreatment PS, BMI, Hgb level, and WBC count was constructed. CONCLUSIONS. In addition to the widely accepted prognostic factors of PS, BMI, and disease stage, both of the readily available laboratory parameters of Hgb level and WBC count were found to be significant prognostic factors for OS and TTP in patients with advanced-stage NSCLC. The authors' prediction equation can be used to evaluate the benefit of a treatment in Phase II trials by comparing the observed survival of a cohort with its expected survival by using the patients' own prognostic factors in place of comparisons with historic data that may have substantially different baseline patient characteristics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)781-792
Number of pages12
Issue number4
StatePublished - Aug 15 2006
Externally publishedYes


  • Multivariate modeling
  • Nonsmall cell lung carcinoma
  • Pooled analysis
  • Prediction model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Cancer Research
  • Oncology


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