A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: . I. Model description

Mimako Kobayashi, Tim Carpenter, Bradley F. Dickey, Richard E. Howitt

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

29 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)257-273
Number of pages17
JournalPreventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume79
Issue number2-4
DOIs
StatePublished - May 16 2007

Fingerprint

Foot-and-Mouth Disease
foot-and-mouth disease
disease control
simulation models
Disease Outbreaks
Central Valley of California
Vaccination
disease models
Costs and Cost Analysis
vaccination
duration
prediction

Keywords

  • Disease control strategies
  • Economic analysis
  • Foot-and-mouth disease
  • Infectious livestock disease
  • Optimization modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Animal Science and Zoology
  • veterinary(all)

Cite this

A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease : . I. Model description. / Kobayashi, Mimako; Carpenter, Tim; Dickey, Bradley F.; Howitt, Richard E.

In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Vol. 79, No. 2-4, 16.05.2007, p. 257-273.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Kobayashi, Mimako ; Carpenter, Tim ; Dickey, Bradley F. ; Howitt, Richard E. / A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease : . I. Model description. In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2007 ; Vol. 79, No. 2-4. pp. 257-273.
@article{4db63c5bf0074f9da7434527e6af81c2,
title = "A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: . I. Model description",
abstract = "A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.",
keywords = "Disease control strategies, Economic analysis, Foot-and-mouth disease, Infectious livestock disease, Optimization modeling",
author = "Mimako Kobayashi and Tim Carpenter and Dickey, {Bradley F.} and Howitt, {Richard E.}",
year = "2007",
month = "5",
day = "16",
doi = "10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.01.002",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "79",
pages = "257--273",
journal = "Preventive Veterinary Medicine",
issn = "0167-5877",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "2-4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease

T2 - . I. Model description

AU - Kobayashi, Mimako

AU - Carpenter, Tim

AU - Dickey, Bradley F.

AU - Howitt, Richard E.

PY - 2007/5/16

Y1 - 2007/5/16

N2 - A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.

AB - A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.

KW - Disease control strategies

KW - Economic analysis

KW - Foot-and-mouth disease

KW - Infectious livestock disease

KW - Optimization modeling

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=33847409604&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=33847409604&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.01.002

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.01.002

M3 - Article

C2 - 17280729

AN - SCOPUS:33847409604

VL - 79

SP - 257

EP - 273

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

SN - 0167-5877

IS - 2-4

ER -