A deterministic model to quantify risk and guide mitigation strategies to reduce bluetongue virus transmission in California dairy cattle

Christie Mayo, Courtney Shelley, Nigel J Maclachlan, Ian Gardner, David Hartley, Chris Barker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

The global distribution of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been changing recently, perhaps as a result of climate change. To evaluate the risk of BTV infection and transmission in a BTVendemic region of California, sentinel dairy cows were evaluated for BTV infection, and populations of Culicoides vectors were collected at different sites using carbon dioxide. A deterministic model was developed to quantify risk and guide future mitigation strategies to reduce BTV infection in California dairy cattle. The greatest risk of BTV transmission was predicted within the warm Central Valley of California that contains the highest density of dairy cattle in the United States. Temperature and parameters associated with Culicoides vectors (transmission probabilities, carrying capacity, and survivorship) had the greatest effect on BTV's basic reproduction number, R0. Based on these analyses, optimal control strategies for reducing BTV infection risk in dairy cattle will be highly reliant upon early efforts to reduce vector abundance during the months prior to peak transmission.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere0165806
JournalPLoS One
Volume11
Issue number11
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 1 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)
  • Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences(all)

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