A case study of time-series regression modeling: Risk factors for pond-level mortality of farmed grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) on a southern Chinese farm

Beibei Jia, Ben Armstrong, Henrik Stryhn, Ian Gardner, Hua Chang, Sophie St-Hilaire

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Limited research has been done using multivariable statistical methods to assess factors associated with fish mortality in warm-water finfish aquaculture in China. We carried out a case study to test the hypothesized association between pond-level daily mortality of farmed grass carp and predisposing environmental and husbandry factors. Based on logbook data from a single farm in Guangdong province (China) in 2013, two-stage time-series regression (TSR) analyses were conducted to estimate the lagged effect of these predisposing factors on grass carp mortality. Factors assessed included temperature fluctuations, movement of fish into and out of ponds, and 3 types of treatments (antibiotics-antiparasitics, traditional Chinese medicine-probiotics, and chemicals to improve water quality). First, coefficients were estimated using a generalized linear negative-binomial model for each pond, and these coefficient estimates were combined using meta-analytic techniques. Sensitivity analyses were done to compare effects of changes in the 3 modeling components: distributional forms, number of spline knots, and types of autocorrelation terms. Model results in the case study indicated 2 risk factors might be associated with increased mortality of grass carp: (1) movements-in of new fish during the previous 14 days; and (2) increasing water temperature during the previous 7 days. Sensitivity analyses indicated good consistency of the estimates with different modeling components. Our findings highlight the utility of assessing daily farm records using TSR to develop hypotheses about potential risk factors for grass carp mortality in China.

LanguageEnglish (US)
Pages58-64
Number of pages7
JournalAquaculture
Volume484
DOIs
StatePublished - Feb 1 2018
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Ctenopharyngodon idella
risk factor
time series analysis
risk factors
pond
grass
farm
time series
case studies
mortality
farms
China
modeling
fish
farm records
finfish
probiotics
knots
fish culture
autocorrelation

Keywords

  • Daily records
  • Grass carp
  • Mortality
  • Risk factors
  • Time-series regression

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Aquatic Science

Cite this

A case study of time-series regression modeling : Risk factors for pond-level mortality of farmed grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) on a southern Chinese farm. / Jia, Beibei; Armstrong, Ben; Stryhn, Henrik; Gardner, Ian; Chang, Hua; St-Hilaire, Sophie.

In: Aquaculture, Vol. 484, 01.02.2018, p. 58-64.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{957cc220b38e4588999abf52685aa7d7,
title = "A case study of time-series regression modeling: Risk factors for pond-level mortality of farmed grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) on a southern Chinese farm",
abstract = "Limited research has been done using multivariable statistical methods to assess factors associated with fish mortality in warm-water finfish aquaculture in China. We carried out a case study to test the hypothesized association between pond-level daily mortality of farmed grass carp and predisposing environmental and husbandry factors. Based on logbook data from a single farm in Guangdong province (China) in 2013, two-stage time-series regression (TSR) analyses were conducted to estimate the lagged effect of these predisposing factors on grass carp mortality. Factors assessed included temperature fluctuations, movement of fish into and out of ponds, and 3 types of treatments (antibiotics-antiparasitics, traditional Chinese medicine-probiotics, and chemicals to improve water quality). First, coefficients were estimated using a generalized linear negative-binomial model for each pond, and these coefficient estimates were combined using meta-analytic techniques. Sensitivity analyses were done to compare effects of changes in the 3 modeling components: distributional forms, number of spline knots, and types of autocorrelation terms. Model results in the case study indicated 2 risk factors might be associated with increased mortality of grass carp: (1) movements-in of new fish during the previous 14 days; and (2) increasing water temperature during the previous 7 days. Sensitivity analyses indicated good consistency of the estimates with different modeling components. Our findings highlight the utility of assessing daily farm records using TSR to develop hypotheses about potential risk factors for grass carp mortality in China.",
keywords = "Daily records, Grass carp, Mortality, Risk factors, Time-series regression",
author = "Beibei Jia and Ben Armstrong and Henrik Stryhn and Ian Gardner and Hua Chang and Sophie St-Hilaire",
year = "2018",
month = "2",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.aquaculture.2017.10.037",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "484",
pages = "58--64",
journal = "Aquaculture",
issn = "0044-8486",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A case study of time-series regression modeling

T2 - Aquaculture

AU - Jia, Beibei

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Stryhn, Henrik

AU - Gardner, Ian

AU - Chang, Hua

AU - St-Hilaire, Sophie

PY - 2018/2/1

Y1 - 2018/2/1

N2 - Limited research has been done using multivariable statistical methods to assess factors associated with fish mortality in warm-water finfish aquaculture in China. We carried out a case study to test the hypothesized association between pond-level daily mortality of farmed grass carp and predisposing environmental and husbandry factors. Based on logbook data from a single farm in Guangdong province (China) in 2013, two-stage time-series regression (TSR) analyses were conducted to estimate the lagged effect of these predisposing factors on grass carp mortality. Factors assessed included temperature fluctuations, movement of fish into and out of ponds, and 3 types of treatments (antibiotics-antiparasitics, traditional Chinese medicine-probiotics, and chemicals to improve water quality). First, coefficients were estimated using a generalized linear negative-binomial model for each pond, and these coefficient estimates were combined using meta-analytic techniques. Sensitivity analyses were done to compare effects of changes in the 3 modeling components: distributional forms, number of spline knots, and types of autocorrelation terms. Model results in the case study indicated 2 risk factors might be associated with increased mortality of grass carp: (1) movements-in of new fish during the previous 14 days; and (2) increasing water temperature during the previous 7 days. Sensitivity analyses indicated good consistency of the estimates with different modeling components. Our findings highlight the utility of assessing daily farm records using TSR to develop hypotheses about potential risk factors for grass carp mortality in China.

AB - Limited research has been done using multivariable statistical methods to assess factors associated with fish mortality in warm-water finfish aquaculture in China. We carried out a case study to test the hypothesized association between pond-level daily mortality of farmed grass carp and predisposing environmental and husbandry factors. Based on logbook data from a single farm in Guangdong province (China) in 2013, two-stage time-series regression (TSR) analyses were conducted to estimate the lagged effect of these predisposing factors on grass carp mortality. Factors assessed included temperature fluctuations, movement of fish into and out of ponds, and 3 types of treatments (antibiotics-antiparasitics, traditional Chinese medicine-probiotics, and chemicals to improve water quality). First, coefficients were estimated using a generalized linear negative-binomial model for each pond, and these coefficient estimates were combined using meta-analytic techniques. Sensitivity analyses were done to compare effects of changes in the 3 modeling components: distributional forms, number of spline knots, and types of autocorrelation terms. Model results in the case study indicated 2 risk factors might be associated with increased mortality of grass carp: (1) movements-in of new fish during the previous 14 days; and (2) increasing water temperature during the previous 7 days. Sensitivity analyses indicated good consistency of the estimates with different modeling components. Our findings highlight the utility of assessing daily farm records using TSR to develop hypotheses about potential risk factors for grass carp mortality in China.

KW - Daily records

KW - Grass carp

KW - Mortality

KW - Risk factors

KW - Time-series regression

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032722133&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85032722133&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2017.10.037

DO - 10.1016/j.aquaculture.2017.10.037

M3 - Article

VL - 484

SP - 58

EP - 64

JO - Aquaculture

JF - Aquaculture

SN - 0044-8486

ER -